WITH TURKEY’S CREDIT
RATING UPGRADED TO
INVESTMENT GRADE, IT
IS BELIEVED THAT FUNDS
OBTAINED BY THE SECTOR
FROM ABROAD WILL
ACQUIRE A LOWER-COST
AND MORE SUSTAINABLE
in keeping with the anticipated rise in
domestic demand in the period ahead,
and that the Turkish economy will attain a
relatively faster growth in 2013.
In this framework, while many countries
are projected to generate a weak growth in
2013, the Turkish economy is anticipated
to decouple positively, and demonstrate an
accelerating growth performance.
In line with an improved external balance
that will accompany the soft landing process
in the economy combined with continued
fiscal discipline, a credit rating agency in
addition to Fitch is expected to present a
similar rating upgrade in 2013.
DEVELOPMENTS IN PRIMARY EXPORT
MARKETS ARE CRUCIAL.
The developments in Turkey’s primary
export markets, and mainly in the European
Union (EU) countries, will be influential
on the course of economic activity
in the coming period. The successful
diversification of export markets in the
recent years is expected to limit the
negative effect of the anticipated weak
growth performance in the EU countries
upon the Turkish economy. Non-monetary
gold export and import are expected to
return to pre-2012 levels.
A resumption in domestic demand is
anticipated to drive a stronger performance
by the budget revenues in 2013.
FLEXIBLE MONETARY POLICY
The developments in the highly volatile
food and energy prices are also expected
to influence inflation in the coming period,
while Turkey’s upgraded credit rating is
expected to somewhat alleviate the cost
side pressures upon inflation. It is believed
that the CBRT will continue with monetary
policy implementations that will support
domestic consumption, depending on the
course of the inflation rate, and in this
framework will actively continue to employ
monetary policy tools in 2013.
In view of the global monetary expansion
process, Turkey is expected to be impacted
by these developments at a more
“moderate” extent compared with the
previous years, due to the mechanisms
devised by policymakers through observing
both financial stability and price stability.
Accordingly, it is believed that in 2013 the
Turkish lira will maintain its stable course as
opposed to the currencies of other emerging
SUSTAINED GROWTH IN THE BANKING
INDUSTRY IS ANTICIPATED.
Continued growth is anticipated in the
banking industry in 2013 due to the ongoing
tendency of banks active in the sector to
turn towards alternative funding tools such
as bonds issues, as well as the existing
monetary policies pursued by the CBRT,
which reduce funding costs.
With Turkey’s credit rating upgraded to
investment grade, it is believed that funds
obtained by the sector from abroad will
acquire a lower-cost and more sustainable
structure. Based on forecasts for relatively
higher domestic demand in 2013, the
expansion trend in the credit supply is
expected to gain momentum compared
with 2012. Potential volatilities in the global
financial services markets, which have yet to
acquire a stable base, continue to be a major
risk element as they have the potential
to negatively impact the Turkish banking
sector’s access to foreign funds.
FINANCIAL INFORMATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT
ANNUAL REPORT 2012