A BANKING UNION IN
THE EURO ZONE ALSO
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FUTURE
It can be seen that the global economy
has yet to settle on a solid foundation,
despite the time elapsed since the start
of the crisis. Issues persist, particularly in
developed economies, and create pressure
on financial markets. Many countries in the
Euro Zone, Turkey’s largest trading partner,
have experienced difficulty in servicing the
high public indebtedness and recapturing
economic growth, leading to frequent
fluctuation in global markets.
Limited improvement is forecasted in
economic activity for the year ahead,
as a result of the measures adopted by
policymakers in developed countries. For the
coming year, it is anticipated that emerging
countries will demonstrate a relatively
positive performance on the back of limited
recovery in the foreign trade and financing
The IMF forecasts a 3.5% rise in global
economic growth in 2013, up from
registered growth of 3.2% in 2012.
A last-minute development that positively
affected forecasts pertaining to the
world’s biggest economy was the political
consensus secured with regard to the
“fiscal cliff,” expected to influence the U.S.
economy in 2013, accompanied by the
passing of the related bill.
The recently-created roadmap concerning
a banking union in the Euro Zone also
reinforced positive expectations for the
coming period. It is anticipated that the
European Stability Mechanismwill start
operating more efficiently, and that some
improvement will be attained in the region’s
financing conditions within this framework.
However, sustained structural problems in
relation to the high public debt stock in the
Euro Zone countries will continue to create
an element of pressure on the markets.
Forecasts indicate that global imbalances,
resulting from countries whose trade
balances produce high deficits or surpluses,
will decrease to some extent in the period
ahead with the effect of the gradual
recovery process in the global economy, but
will continue to present an obstacle to global
In the event that uncertainties persist in
relation to the high additional financing
needs that will arise in developed economies
due to public indebtedness, the banking
system in these countries is expected to
have a continued need for capital increases.
Moreover, it is believed that the sustained
level of disparity in interest rates between
developed and emerging countries will
cause short-term capital flows to emerging
countries to continue in the coming period.
FINANCIAL INFORMATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT
ANNUAL REPORT 2012